Seeing the Bumps in the Road

What happens when the future does not look like the recent past? Psychologists tell us that human beings are subject to something called "normalcy bias." In essence, it means that human beings believe that their future will look a lot like their past (typically, their more recent past). According to the "normalcy bias" theory, we humans have a hard time seeing the bumps in the road ahead, and the larger the bump, the harder time we have seeing it (as counterintuitive as this may seem).

So why do I bring this up? Because, it has something to do with what is likely coming down the road in terms of our school district. In order to see what the future holds for our school district, we have to see beyond the borders of our district and look at the bigger picture (i.e., what is happening at the state level and the federal level). Most of us know that both the State of Illinois and the United States government have budget problems. But, how many have thought about the true extent of those problems, the likelihood of any constructive solutions to those problems and what this means for our school district? If we are being brutally honest with ourselves, we must accept that due to political constraints, neither the state nor the federal government are likely to solve their budget problems until they are forced to do so.

Illinois will be forced to confront its budget problems much sooner since Illinois does not have the ability to print money like the federal government. In fact, Illinois is in the beginning stages of really confronting its budget problems. I say "confronting" rather than "solving" because many of the strategies that are being floated are methods of shifting the burdens caused by the state's profligacy to the municipalities and school districts in Illinois. So, for example, some of the strategies being discussed are (1) cutting back on transportation funding for school districts (see here); and (2) shifting the burden of teacher's pensions to the local school districts (see here and here). Other strategies would hit retired teachers directly (see here).

Now, the discussion of these strategies are largely preliminary at this point.  Some strategies will be followed and others will be discarded.  However, it should be clear that in the future (the very near future), education funding from the State of Illinois will be dropping significantly (more than it already has).  It is also likely that at the same time that the amount of state education funding is dropping, the state will be shifting additional financial burdens (at least some portion of unfunded pension burdens) to the local school districts.  We should not assume that federal funding will replace state funding, since even though the federal government can print money to finance its deficits, it can not do so without causing inflation.  Also, the federal government's budget problems are just as serious, if not more so, than those of Illinois.  For those who think that the economy is on the mend and the financial crisis is a thing of the past, all you have to do is compare the annual growth rate of federal debt (roughly 10% per year) to the annual growth rate of the U.S. economy (roughly 2 or 3% per year, if we are lucky).  Perhaps this is an opportunity for us to teach our children what it means for something to be "unsustainable."

So, what is a local school district to do?  I would suggest that Illinois school districts like ours should plan for the future by preparing for zero funding from the state and federal government.  This will, of course, imply changes to the operation of our school district.  The loss of transportation funding would be a large adjustment on its own.  The more difficult adjustment, however, would be the possibility that, in the not too distant future, the cost of all local teachers' and administrators' pensions will be borne by local school districts.  The adjustments will be even harder if we allow ourselves to be lulled into complacency by the "normalcy bias."